Guest Column
By Alan Singer
In the current Congress, Republicans hold a narrow 220-212 majority in the House of Representatives with three vacant seats. New York metropolitan area congressional districts may hold the key to the balance of power in the next Congress.
According to the website Cook Partisan Voting Index, of the 450 congressional districts in the United States, only 87 are considered swing districts. The rest, either because of gerrymandering or strong local preferences, vote solidly for one party or the other. Of those swing districts, two are in Nassau County.
In 2020, after U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi gave up his seat to run in the Democratic Party gubernatorial primary, Republican George Santos defeated Democrat Robert Zimmerman with 54% of the vote in District 3, which includes parts of Nassau and Queens counties. After Santos was expelled from Congress, a special election was held and Suozzi defeated the Republican candidate, Mazi Pilip, with 54% of the vote.
In District 4 in southwestern Nassau County, Democrat Kathleen Rice was elected in 2020 with 56% of the vote. In 2022, Republican Anthony D’Esposito narrowly defeated Democrat Laura Gillen by 52% to 48% in a district that was carried by Democratic presidential candidates in every election from 1992 to 2020. D’Esposito and Gillen face off again in 2024.
Suffolk County’s two congressional districts are much more strongly Republican. In 2022 in District 1 Nicholas Lalota defeated Bridget Fleming by 55.5% to 45.5%. In District 2, Andrew Garbarino defeated Jackie Gordon by 61% to 39%. While District 1 has voted for Republican congressional candidates since 2014, the Democrats believe Lalota is vulnerable, and they have a stronger candidate in former CNN anchor and commentator John Avlon.
Other contested congressional districts in the New York City metropolitan area include New York’s 11th, 17th, and 18th and New Jersey’s 3rd and 7th. The 11th Congressional District, which includes Staten Island and the western most parts of Brooklyn, went solidly Democratic in 2018, narrowly Republican in 2020, and solidly Republican in 2022, partly because of changes in district lines but also candidate strengths.
In 2020, the 17th Congressional District was solidly Democratic, but after redistricting it swung narrowly Republican in 2022. It now includes all of Rockland and Putnam Counties and small parts of Westchester and Dutchess County. A little farther north in the 18th Congressional District, the Democratic candidate was narrowly elected in 2022.
South Central New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District is currently represented by Democrat Andy Kim, who is running for the Senate in 2024 rather than seeking re-election. In 2020, Democrat Tom Malinowski narrowly defeated Republican Thomas Kean Jr. in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District and in 2022 Kean narrowly defeated Malinowski.
Swings can also happen within districts. In 2022, progressive Democrat Jamaal Bowman defeated a longtime Democratic Party incumbent, but he was defeated by a more traditional Democrat in the party’s 2024 primary for the 16th CD in Westchester.
Whoever wins the presidency in November, the battle for majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate will determine much about the future of the United States. The House of Representatives along with the Senate are responsible for making laws. Both branches can initiate investigations into government officials and individual, group, and corporate behavior that impacts on the United States. The House must initiate budgetary legislation and issue Articles of Impeachment before a trial in the Senate.
In the current Congress, since the Republican Party took over with a slim majority in the House, sharp internal disputes over leadership and divisions between the Republican controlled House and the Democrat controlled Senate have frequently blocked legislative action.
Alan Singer is director of Secondary Education Social Studies at Hofstra University
