I am not a gambler. Occasionally, I buy a lottery ticket, but I have never won more than $5. I haven’t been to a racetrack in 15 years and if my memory serves me correctly, I once won $20. I ran for the state Assembly 12 times and won. I definitely consider that gambling. The only gambling term I know is the word “trifecta,” which means you bet on three horses and if all three win their races, you cash in your winning tickets.
This coming November will be a challenge to both political parties, but the Democratic Party needs its own trifecta to help them come out on top. The first thing that works in the party’s favor is the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court throwing out a woman’s right to choose under Roe v. Wade. The second part of the trifecta is the passage of three major bills by the Democratic congressional majority that will improve the lives of millions of Americans. And the third part of their political hopes is continued bad news for former President Donald Trump.
The Supreme Court’s action has succeeded in galvanizing women voters all over America. State after state has reported a dramatic upsurge in women registering to vote in November. The court’s action has thrown hundreds of Republican candidates off balance and forced many of them to remove any anti-abortion language from their websites. In January, Republicans were looking forward to a “red wave” but now it’s anybody’s guess.
The second change in circumstances has been the ability of the Democratic Congress to pass major bills in areas such as local infrastructure moneys, climate control, Medicare benefits and President Biden’s latest executive order forgiving college loans. As late as April, the party had a few legislative wins. but the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 gave the party a great deal to brag about on the campaign trail.
The third leg of the party’s platform has been given to them by Trump’s continued insistence that the 2020 election was stolen. His endless rage about his alleged defeat has put his party in a weak position with swing and suburban voters. The Republican Party wants the 2022 election to be about such issues as crime and inflation and instead Mr. Trump continues to keep the party on defense. The Trump wailing about 2020 has caused deep divides in the party and is causing party candidates to break away from their still popular former president.
Some Democratic partisans will tell you that the Roe v. Wade controversy is enough to get the party over the November finish line. But that decision, by itself, is not enough to turn the tide totally in the party’s favor. The passage of so many meaningful laws at a time when the public has little or no faith in government has given the party’s image a major boost with many voting groups. Laws that help so many different groups are a bonus prior to any election.
These three good Democratic bets are causing havoc in the Republican Party. Their early overconfidence has turned into deep worries about the fate of their candidates. While the party regulars are counting on a House majority, a Senate majority dream is on shaky grounds, due to the nomination of candidates with controversial backgrounds. In most of the states with expected close contests, the Democrats have raised large amounts of money and have more appealing candidates.
Because of the Democrats’ good fortune, the Republican Party has made a last-minute decision to come up with a platform of proposals, instead of relying on inflation and crime to carry them to victory. Most of the new ideas to come are actually the old planks of a once moderate party. Elections are a horse race and the favorites can be losers if the turf gets too bumpy. And any gambling addict will tell you that nothing is a sure thing until your horse passes the finishing pole.
