Nassau Republicans swept the four county-wide seats in November 2021 based in large part on a rise in crime statewide that they blamed on reforms to New York’s bail laws approved by the Democratic-controlled state Legislature.
Republican candidates running for office across the state led by Lee Zeldin, a congressman from Suffolk County vying for governor, are now using the same playbook.
Zeldin, a close ally of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, is calling for an end to cashless bail for all crimes.
There is no doubt the state’s reforms – eliminating cash bail for misdemeanors and non-violent felonies – have been a politically potent argument for Republicans.
But there is one problem with the claim that the reforms are responsible for the increase in violent crime in the state. It isn’t true.
A state report issued last week shows that criminal suspects are being rearrested at roughly the same rate as before bail laws were overhauled. Outside of New York City, the rate was 16% in 2019, 23% in 2020 and 21% in 2021.
The report broke down the statistics between New York City and outside New York City. The numbers tracked fairly closely between the two areas.
Rearrests for violent crimes also remain low. Outside of New York City, about 1% of suspects were rearrested for a violent felony in 2019 compared to about 3% in 2021.
The report, which takes data going back to 2019, indicates that judges, who can’t assess bail as frequently as before, are using non-monetary supervision tools such as ankle bracelets to monitor suspects.
Bail reforms also have not sparked a rash of no-shows at required court appearances.
Yes, the agency that issued the report – the state Division of Criminal Justice Services – is under the control of Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, who is running for re-election against Zeldin.
But the report closely follows findings made by several news outlets when they reviewed the data earlier this year that showed bail reform had a minimal impact on the crime rate.
An analysis of Nassau County crime statistics for the past five years conducted by Blank Slate Media shows a decrease of more than 10% in major crimes from 2017-2021 but an increase of more than 16% in violent crimes.
Major crimes, overall, increased less than 3% in 2021 from 12,244 in 2020. Violent crime increased 5% from 1,826 to 1,917 during this period and property crimes increased less than 2%.
In short, no evidence exists to support the claim that New York’s bail reform is to blame for increases in violent crime, which have occurred nationwide, including in jurisdictions without bail reform, during the pandemic.
Nassau County recently reported that authorities rearrested about 7% of defendants who were released without bail during the second quarter of 2022. But that included nonviolent crimes, such as possession of controlled substances, larceny, criminal mischief and not showing up at trial.
This has not prevented Blakeman and Nassau County Police Commissioner Patrick Ryder from blaming a 75% rise in crime in Nassau in the first three months of the year on bail reform.
“These criminals are allowed out without having to post bail, without any accountability for their actions and the number of crimes they have committed,” Blakeman said in an interview with Blank Slate Media in July. “It’s dangerous and it’s made us all less safe.”
Without any evidence to prove it, Blakeman also said there is a “state of lawlessness” throughout New York and it has resulted in repeat offenders coming back to Nassau County to commit crimes.
This may be a good sound bite. But it is not supported by the facts.
The problem with blaming bail reform for the spike in the county’s crime rate is that it allows Blakeman, Zeldin and other Republicans to avoid addressing the actual cause – whatever that might be. And actually doing something about it.
But before that question is answered, it would be helpful to know what the county’s crime rate has been since March.
The county had not updated 2021 Nassau crime statistics since October, when Laura Curran was county executive, until July and only then in response to a Freedom of Information Law request by Blank Slate Media.
The county also did not release monthly crime statistics for 2022 until then.
By contrast, New York City releases its crime statistics monthly and has used them to target areas of concern such as gun shootings.
In response to a spike in gun shootings, the city focused on areas where a disproportionate number of shootings occurred and launched an aggressive program of getting guns off the street. Gun shootings declined in subsequent months.
Do Blakeman and Ryder not know whether the crime rate continues to spike over 2021?
Or do they know and are not sharing that information with Nassau County residents? If so, why?
Releasing crime statistics that show crime has spiked since Blakeman took office would certainly cast his first year in office in an unflattering light. But that’s not a reason to withhold the information.
The last two years in which Curran was county executive, before losing to Blakeman, Nassau was ranked as the safest county in the United States by U.S. News & World Report – an honor questioned by Blakeman.
OK, but how does Blakeman explain the small increase in Nassau’s crime rate the two years after the bail laws reforms were enacted when Curran was county executive and the increase since he took office in the beginning of this year?
And what is Blakeman going to do about the rise in crime now?
Ryder and Blakeman did warn criminals from out of state to stay out of Nassau after reporting that 75% of the 300 cars thefts in Nassau in the first three months of the year were committed by Newark, N.J., residents. This represented a 255% increase in car thefts.
Ryder said at the time the county’s Police Department was working with Newark police to catch the offenders and said Nassau County Crimestoppers was offering rewards of up to $5,000 for information that led to arrests of car theft criminals.
So, what has happened since?
Nassau County’s police are among the best paid in the county. The county spends $1,148 per capita on police and fire protection while the national median is $359, according to U.S. News & World Report.
And for that money county taxpayers have gotten good results in the past.
What went wrong in the first three months of the year? And have the steps taken by the county since then been enough?
These are questions that Blakeman and Ryder as well as every county legislator – Republican and Democrat – should answer.
And yes, they have been asked. And no, they have with the exception of Blakeman and Ryder not been answered.
The state’s bail laws were grossly unfair before they were first reformed in 2019, penalizing poor (disproportionately minority) defendants unable to pay their way out of jail while rewarding those with the means to buy their freedom.
For those who could not pay, the results were often catastrophic not only for those who were arrested but for their families as well.
Lawmakers have twice amended the bail laws, most recently this past spring, to address the concerns of Republicans and some Democrats who relied on anecdotal evidence but no hard facts.
Now, we have hard data and they show that bail reform is not behind the rise in crime in New York.
Will that stop politicians from trying to exploit the issue and find real solutions? Probably not. But it should.