By Hank Sheinkopf
Democrats throughout the nation-according to news reports and network television commentator observations-are no longer depressed.
Little more than a week ago polls gave no hope that Brooklyn Democrat Hakeem Jefferies could become House Speaker. U.S. Senate majority leader looked like he would once again be a back-bencher.
Then the great switcheroo happened. Goodbye Joe Biden and hello Veep Kamala Harris.
This was no accident. There was nothing spontaneous about it. And it was better than well executed. No errors and lots of hits.
When observers think about what will happen in a place called New York they often think only of the City.
Maybe they never drove on the Long Island Expressway. The signs say to New York when you’re heading west. They mean the City—the place where crime, school violence, migrants, homeless, potholes and emotionally disturbed people control the streets and the lives of millions.
That’s the city, New York. It’s the place Nassau and Suffolk County residents ran away from for a better life, better schools, and safety.
Even though Nassau County has a plurality of residents registered as Democrats, Kamala Harris’ party hasn’t been able to catch much of break in recent years.
The Republicans under the adept leadership of chairman Joseph Cairo continue winning local races. Ditto with Suffolk Republican chair Jesse Garcia.
While suburban areas around the nation helped Democrats in 2022, the opposite occurred on Long Island.
All four Long island congressional seats went Republican. Two county executives, two district attorneys, both county legislatures in Republican hands.
But in a special election, former Nassau County Executive and Congressmember Tom Suozzi won the Nassau/Queens seat vacated by indicted former Congressmember Republican George Santos.
So what happens now?
One Republican down, three to go. Can the Democrats win? Not impossible. Democrat John Avlon faces off against incumbent Nick LaLota. LaLota was born in Suffolk County, graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy, served in three overseas deployments, all Long Island in every way.
Avlon is very smart, very accomplished. And very Manhattan. The issue: It all depends who turns out. And why. He has a shot. But don’t hock the house.
In New York’s 2nd congressional district incumbent Andrew Garbarino is all Long Island and it matters. He served previously in the state Assembly. People know him. And the way they vote, they obviously like him.
Then there’s New York’s 4th congressional district represented by incumbent Anthony D’Esposito. This former NYPD detective presents the best Long Island congressional campaign opportunity Democrats might find this fall.
Opposing womens’ reproductive rights could be his downfall. His effective opponent is former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen.
In this district, it will get down to Trump and that place called New York. If Trump’s Trumpinsess proves too much to bear and reproductive rights run much of the fall discussion, D’Esposito might need new work come January 2025.
Were he to lose, New York Democrats and the Nassau County Democratic Party leadership would be able to restore some of their lost pride.
Grabbing any of those congressional seats will energize a party that needs suburban wins badly.
The larger issue is 2026.
Democrats getting smashed again in Nassau County could very well impact that year’s governor race. If the voters prove again with their votes that they believe Democrats are the people to run away from, imagine the resumes of former elected officials circulating. There will be a lot of that.
Hank Sheinkopf, who has worked on an estimated 700 domestic U.S. and international political campaigns, is a crisis manager and PR consultant.