For years, Great Neck was a Democratic bastion on the North Shore.

That longtime trend may have changed, according to an analysis by Blank Slate Media.

Unofficial data from the Nassau Board of Elections shows that North Hempstead Supervisor Jennifer DeSena won re-election in November due in part to a strong plurality in the Great Neck as well as the Manhasset, New Hyde Park and Williston areas. 

DeSena defeated Jon Kaiman, a former North Hempstead supervisor who has served in recent years as the Suffolk County deputy executive.

DeSena secured 60% of the 11,155 total votes in Great Neck, a 2,216 vote advantage; 72% of the 3,801 total votes in Manhasset, a 1,640 vote advantage; 61% of the 5,984 total votes in New Hyde Park, a 1,422 vote advantage; and 55% of the 12,885 total votes in the Williston area, a 1,349 vote advantage. 

In Great Neck, where Kaiman lives, DeSena had a strong showing among three of the four election districts that had a total of over 1,000 votes cast.

She won 73% of the vote in the Village of Great Neck — 1,357 more votes than Kaiman, 86% of the vote in Kings Point with 1,454 votes to Kaiman’s 237 and 87% of the vote in the Village of Great Neck Estates with 798 of the 1,252 votes cast.

Kaiman won in the villages of Great Neck Plaza, Lake Success and Russell Gardens with more than 60% of the vote.

The Republican support in Great Neck is a major shift from decades of Democratic leadership, where much of town and county representation was Democratic.

North Hempstead had three straight Democratic supervisors from the area, including May Newburger, Kaiman and Judi Bosworth heading the town from 1994 to 2021.

At the county level, the 10th Legislative District was represented by Democrats Lisanne Altman, Bosworth and Ellen Birnbaum from the Legislature’s first election in 1995 through 2021, when Mazi Melesa Pilip defeated Birnbaum, becoming the only candidate to flip a district that year.

At the town board level, Democrat Lee Seeman represented the town’s 5th District from the 2000s to 2021, where Republican David Adhami won her vacant seat after Seeman’s retirement. 

Republicans have used higher turnout margins in off-year election cycles to make inroads on Long Island, despite being greatly outnumbered by registered Democrats. 

Nassau County and state Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs attributed part of his party’s poor showing in November to the “exceedingly low” turnout and it being an odd-year election. 

 “The lesson is this: It is incumbent upon us to see to it that we get a system where we can run elections like these that are important elections that have important races in even years when the voters are of a mindset to come out and vote,” Jacobs said at the Garden City Hotel at the time. “We need voters who are going to pay attention to the issues. We need voters who are going to feel engaged in an election.”

On Election Day, 34.5% of Republicans across Long Island voted as opposed to 26.3% of Democrats, according to Board of Elections data first reported by Newsday. 

Just before the new year, Gov. Kathy Hochul signed a new law that will change most elections outside New York City to even years to improve voter turnout. 

Hochul also announced her support for a future state constitutional amendment to align all election dates. 

“Every eligible New Yorker deserves the right to participate in the democratic process without unnecessary barriers,” Hochul said in a statement. “By signing this legislation, we are taking a significant step towards expanding access to the ballot box and promoting a more inclusive democracy.”

Another test of voter sentiments in Great Neck and across the North Shore will take place on Feb. 9 when former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi attempts to reclaim his 3rd District seat from Republican Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip in a widely watched special election to replace Rep. George Santos following his expulsion from the House.

Pilip’s selection as the 3rd District candidate by the Nassau Republican Party was strongly backed by her supporters in Great Neck, according to published reports.

In the election districts that make up the Manhasset area–Manhasset, Munsey Park, Plandome, Plandome Heights and Plandome Manor–DeSena won with 72% of the 3,801 total votes, earning her strongest pluralities in the area with 79% of Plandome’s 454 total votes, a 265 vote advantage.

In the greater New Hyde Park area of Manhasset Hills, Floral Park, Garden City Park, New Hyde Park and North New Hyde Park, DeSena won with 61% of the 2,255 total votes. 

Kaiman only won two communities – Port Washington and Roslyn.

In the election districts that make up the Port Washington communities–Baxter Estates, Manorhaven, Port Washington, Port Washington North and Sands Point–Kaiman won 63% of the 7,306 total votes.

Incumbent Democrat Mariann Dalimonte, of Port Washington, defeated her Republican challenger James Franklin by securing 68% of 9,136 total votes.

Kaiman’s strongest support in the area came from Baxter Estates, where he earned 72% of the 273 total votes.

In the Roslyn area communities of East Hills, Greenvale, Old Westbury, Roslyn, Roslyn Estates, Roslyn Harbor and Roslyn Heights, Kaiman also won with 55% of 2,283 total votes. Kaiman’s strongest showing in the area was 63% of Roslyn Estates’ 265 total votes. 

In the Williston area election districts of Albertson, Carle Place, East Williston, Mineola, New Cassel, Searingtown, Westbury and Williston Park, DeSena won with 55%.

The highest percentage she won within the community included 71% of Carle Place’s 934 total votes, and the highest total number of votes she earned in the area was 2,062 of Mineola’s 3,314 total votes, or 62%. 

Because of the overlap in multiple coverage areas by Blank Slate Media newspapers, Flower Hill, Herricks and North Hills were not included in the aforementioned results. 

DeSena won Flower Hill and Herricks with 61% and 51% of the votes, respectively, while Kaiman won North Hills with 53% of the total votes in the area. 

The strong showing from Republicans in the town, which also included Republicans Mary Jo Collins winning the race for town receiver of taxes and Edward Scott flipping the 2nd District, coincides with a robust turnout from Republicans in the two most recent odd-year election cycles.

After becoming the first Republican candidate to win the North Hempstead supervisor seat, DeSena easily won re-election over Kaiman securing 55% of the 94,634 total votes. 

Republicans currently hold a majority in North Hempstead, Hempstead and Oyster Bay, both county executive seats, both county district attorney seats, and both county Legislatures. 

Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in North Hempstead 70,501 to 46,151, according to the state Board of Elections. Registered independents, also known as “blanks,” total 52,573 in the town.

In Nassau, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 86,000 among 981,361 registered voters, according to the Board of Elections.