Now that the moratorium and forbearance programs on foreclosures, short sales, and rentals are over, what will the market look like this year? Currently there are over 14,000 foreclosures on Long Island. No one can determine how many will be able to stay in their homes, which have built up excellent equity compared with the 2008 market when most were under water on their mortgages.
Today when selling one has a greater opportunity with the huge buyer demand and still low interest rates to walk away with money and keep their credit in good standing. But will the market continue or slowdown? Many experts and professionals previously predicted a slowdown in purchasing and an increase in housing inventory. However, none of these scenarios materialized, due to the pandemic, causing many to flee the large cities.
In my opinion, you become an expert when your predictions and prognostications occur on a consistent basis. Just because you are correct once, doesn’t make you an expert. Determining future events today is a very difficult, challenging and almost impossible task to know in advance what the end result will be, until it happens. Guestimates are great if they come true! Research also makes your predictions better, but because today no one has ever experienced so many unpredictable events, it’s a hard call to be very accurate.
Ray Dalio, founder and CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the most successful hedge funds, has studied 500 years of the rise and fall of economies and empires around the globe. I consider him a master of his trade. He has provided some very insightful predictions as to where our country is headed in his new book, “Principles for Dealing with “The Changing World Order,” where he sees the United States in a very precarious position and potential decline as a world power.
The excessive printing of dollars is a phase that we are going through right now as the majority of past empires experienced and was a factor in their demise. We are in a very similar position adding another nail to our coffin. Moreover, the loss of manufacturing jobs to China and other countries has also impeded our standard of living for a multitude of Americans.
So many are employed in service jobs in the hospitality, recreation and food/restaurant industries and that potentially will forever keep them from achieving a path to becoming middle class and homeowners. This is one of the reasons that slowly but surely over the last 20 or so years our middle class has been consistently declining. The much higher cost of living for housing, food and energy has also kept more individuals and families from attaining a decent standard of living. Just look around to what is happening today with the Russian invasion and the price of gas.
The No. 1 answer, which is very crucial, is being able to gain an above-average education, some way, somehow. My personal experience looking back 25 years ago was when my daughter attended Emory University ($47,000 per year and study abroad) and my son attended the University of Maryland School of Engineering ($27,000 per year and study abroad).
I was fortunate enough to be in a position to somewhat afford their educations (by busting my butt!), but they contributed a portion towards their expenses and both had jobs in the summer, waitressing and working in our local movie theatre. But they only received undergraduate degrees and the timing (luck) couldn’t have been more opportune for both of them as they were able to attain excellent positions after graduating.
My daughter was going to be a Spanish teacher and my son a civil engineer. After much discussion and some convincing, my daughter applied to Bloomberg Financial and with little or no business classes taken, she was hired after completing Bloomberg University to learn the requirements of her position. Eleven years later she was recruited by LinkedIn, where she is currently employed as a manager of a large team in charge of Fortune 500 companies.
My son has worked for Gotham, GFI Development, Shawmut and is currently at Vanguard Construction. To achieve similar positions where they are employed today, you would absolutely need at least a master’s degree and possibly a doctorate due to the competition, assuming that there were even positions available.
The problem today is that the cost of education is so prohibitive. There is currently $1.61 trillion of student debt. So even if you take loans out, you may be in debt for the rest of your life except for those who are fortunate to have parents able to afford the costs or the minority of those students who become professionals, e.g., lawyers, doctors who specialize, architects, engineers and earn their master and doctorate Degrees.
One must consider education the No. 1 priority to attain the American Dream of becoming a homeowner; or if you are lucky receiving parental financial assistance or inheritance. The other possibility is going out and working in a field that you are interested in and possibly have a passion for. Learn the ropes and then at some point go into business with a plan for yourself. Then determine how much you want to earn which will depend and be determined by your concerted efforts, discipline actions and the sacrifice of your valuable time to get where you need to be.
You and only you will determine what path you take to become a homeowner and if you want it bad enough, you’ll do whatever necessary to achieve and accomplish this and make it happen.
Philip A. Raices is the owner/Broker of Turn Key Real Estate at 3 Grace Ave Suite 180 in Great Neck. He has 40 years of experience in the Real Estate industry and has earned designations as a Graduate of the Realtor Institute (G.R.I.) and also as a Certified International Property Specialist (C.I.P.S). He can be reached by cell: (516) 647-4289 or by email: Phil@TurnKeyRealEstate.Com