A few weeks ago, the eyes of the political world were focused on Long Island’s 3rd Congressional District. The contest for the seat once held by George Santos, was a costly one estimated by some to have cost at least $12 million.
The victor, Tom Suozzi, was able to bring out a large number of Democrats to the polls and made a serious dent in Republican districts.
Numerous political observers have attested Suozzi’s victory to the fact that he was a well-known former Congress member which was just a part of the winning scenario.
Historically, Democrats do not turn out in larger numbers during primary contests or special elections. Many traditional party members are accustomed to showing up on election day in even years and stay home in odd-year contests.
The Suozzi-Pilip dustup brought out a respectable number of Democrats and quite a few Republicans stayed home or voted for Suozzi. Republican leaders have attributed their lower turnout to bad weather. But there is more to that story than just who has the best alibi.
For the past six-plus years former President Trump has been telling party voters that absentee ballots are some form of governmental evil and they should refrain from submitting applications.
Party leaders throughout the country have repeated the Trump chorus and discouraged their voters from even touching a paper ballot. It has been a potent message and state after state reports a low use of mail-in ballots.
This November, once again, the eyes of the national political world will focus on Long Island and some upstate Congressional districts, because the New York results could determine the control of the House of Representatives.
The national Democratic Party has targeted five Republicans and no matter how comfortable they feel at this very moment, they are in serious danger of being wiped out.
The five are Michael Lawler and Marcus Molinaro from the Hudson Valley region and Anthony D’Esposito, Andrew Garbarino and Nicholas La Lota of Long Island.
In the next five months, they will be faced with numerous votes on highly controversial issues, as well as out-sized pressure from Donald Trump to vote his way or the highway.
The bipartisan border bill which provides aid to Israel and the Ukraine, will somehow make its way onto the House floor, whether by partisan floor pressure or the Speaker being forced to move it on his own initiative.
Because any Republican member can force the speaker out of office with one resolution, it is likely that the Democrats will seek to force floor action.
Most Republican House members are prepared to withstand the pressure to keep the Senate compromise bill from being acted on but the New York State five don’t have that luxury.
It would be almost suicidal to vote against a border security package and the potential slaughter of millions of Ukrainians by the Russians will put enormous pressure on the New York five.
President Trump has a strong base in Suffolk County, but the Suozzi election proved that Republican voters could either stay home or vote for a Democrat.
The New York five has another looming headache in the form of the U.S. Supreme Court. The Court has a number of cases before it that could bring out an avalanche of Democratic voters on Election Day.
One is a case involving a pill used by more than half of America’s women. If the Court denies the ability of the FDA to approve its use, it will stir up millions of placid Democrats, independents and some Republicans.
Should the court deny Mr. Trump the immunity he is seeking, it could result in a Trump criminal trial well before the election. Current polls indicate that an estimated 32% of the Republicans and independents will not vote for a candidate who is convicted of a crime.
Any conviction at the top of the ticket could cause problems for down-ballot candidates
Faced with all of these challenges, the five Republican incumbents will have to find ways to insulate themselves from a political tsunami.
Sometimes people facing a vicious storm can find ways to survive, but the bigger the storm the less likely is their chance of survival.
