As this is being written, gasoline futures have already retraced 75% of their post Ukraine invasion price hike, begun just three weeks ago. The incident shows that this might as well have been an entire Presidential term. There are so many lessons to be drawn from this.
First, the manufactured hysteria.
Let’s get a grip, shall we? In terms of “wallet share,” gasoline has rarely been cheaper. Irony of ironies, if we adjust the price of a gallon of gas for inflation, it is lower today than it has been at many times in the past few decades. But the mere crossing of that $4.00 a gallon threshold sends off alarm bells, even though in real terms, it’s not a high price to pay. But people are conditioned to certain levels.
Even at an extra dollar a gallon, taking the actual cost per month in miles driven and price paid, the increase is not enough to knock someone’s life into a state of penury, unless they were already there. People also have optionality: they can change their driving habits, or choose not to own a three bedroom house on wheels, which is too common in this country.
The political angle was really tortured. No Administration can be seen telling the electorate that these higher prices aren’t all that onerous or, as so often proven, transitory, as high prices help to create their own demand destruction, and commodity traders cash out of their long positions. So the Administration used a lot of political capital trying to bulk up supply, even though supply isn’t the real source of the price action. In case anyone has forgotten, we are net exporters of petroleum products, and the only thing more production will create is more exported product out of Port Arthur, Texas and the Louisiana refineries. If anyone wants to put a cork in that, supply would pool so fast that gasoline would probably drop below $2.00 a gallon in short order, even if oil IS priced globally.
Port Arthur brings us to another canard of the energy discussion. I imagine, thanks to the Murdoch Press, half the country believes that the northern part of the Keystone Pipeline, which the Administration didn’t allow to get built, is responsible for higher energy costs. False. Nearly every drop of the product was to be refined for export out of the Texas Gulf. But the lie is as common as air, and is repeated blindly like a mantra.
The Republican Congress makes a big deal of this, and it’s hard to believe any of them are stupid enough to believe this falsehood. Then again, some of them definitely are.
And of course, the media can’t stop talking about gasoline, with their “The Price You Pay” pieces, and reporters standing guard at gas pumps, catching sound bites of predictably resentful consumers. Would that they would do the same for insulin prices or housing costs, but hey, that extra $60 a month is just killing you, right?
One pundit, even before hostilities broke out, wrote a piece called “Joe Biden’s $3.60 a Gallon Problem.” You would think nothing else in the world mattered to people’s well-being.
The average financing cost for a new car in this country is $575 a month. Are we really sure gasoline prices are a big issue?
In any case, the crisis du jour will soon be replaced by another one, and the press and the Administration will surely chase after it like a kitten after a laser pointer. It’s no way to run policy.